The Snark | Asteroid Doom 2030 (2024 YR4, part 1)

Because Nothing Says ‘Life’ Like the End of It” (2024 YR4, part 1):

So, remember when scientists casually told us that there was a 3% chance an asteroid was going to hit Earth in 2030 and obliterate us all? Yeah, no biggie. Just a little thing like the potential for humanity to be extinguished like the dinosaurs - totally normal Tuesday afternoon stuff. Seriously, though, they were so calm about it. I mean, who wouldn’t want to spend their time analyzing a 60-meter-wide rock that could end our existence while we’re busy debating whether pineapple belongs on pizza? It’s not like there’s a massive, extinction-level event potentially looming just around the corner. Oh, wait, there is.

A 3% Chance of Catastrophic Extinction: But Have You Seen the Latest TikTok Challenge?

The fact that we were only given a 3% chance of a planet-wide extinction event in 2030 probably feels a lot better than the alternative: a 100% chance. But still, 3%? That’s not exactly reassuring. I mean, mathematically speaking, that’s the same as flipping a coin and losing 3 out of 100 times. Or, to put it another way: you’re at a 1 in 32 chance of being wiped off the planet. And I don't know about you, but I’ve taken more calculated risks when deciding whether to eat that leftover sushi I forgot about last night.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. "But, it’s not a big deal, right? 3% isn’t high enough to worry about!" And maybe you’re right. Or maybe you should be picking out a new wardrobe to wear in case we’re all suddenly vaporized. The reality is that people don’t take this kind of thing seriously until it’s too late. You know, like when you realize you're suddenly out of coffee in the morning and have to face the world without your precious caffeine. That’s when you panic. Imagine that panic, but instead of your coffee addiction, it's a big, rock-shaped apocalypse heading for you. Not nearly as fun, right?

The Good News: It's Not a Coin Flip, It’s Just Really Bad Odds

Okay, so here’s where it gets a bit more comforting - or not, depending on how you view existential dread. The asteroid, 2024 YR4, was initially predicted to have a much higher chance of impacting Earth. Somewhere in the 3% range. And while that's no reason to start writing your last will and testament (or maybe it is - I'm not your therapist), scientists have now downgraded that risk significantly. By significantly, I mean they reduced the odds of impact to about 0.36%. So, phew! We’re safe-ish.

But here’s the kicker: even with a lessened chance of doom, there's still a tiny, lingering voice in the back of my head saying, "What if...?" It’s not like they know for sure, right? Sure, NASA and other experts are closely tracking this asteroid, but is anyone actually out there building asteroid-destroying lasers in their backyard? Probably not. And if they are, they aren’t telling us. So, that leaves us with the great unknown: we could be fine, or we could be toast. Fun choices!

Apocalyptic Anxiety: The Only Thing More Fun Than a Natural Disaster Is Our Daily Grind

At the end of the day, I’m sure most of us will continue doing what we do best: ignoring the big existential threats and worrying about things like our Wi-Fi connection or how much we really need a third coffee today. It’s human nature, right? We’re brilliant at avoiding things that might actually matter (like how our planet could end) and focusing on the nitpicky annoyances that really don’t matter in the grand scheme of things (like whether your coworker is stealing your lunch).

But hey, maybe that’s the secret to surviving in the 21st century. It’s easier to panic over the small stuff than to face the big stuff, right? Sure, your entire species might be wiped out in 2030 by a random asteroid, but does it really matter if you don’t get that promotion or if your favorite show gets canceled after one season? The real crises are the ones we can do something about. So, let’s all just keep our heads down, ignore the impending doom, and hope the asteroid is kind enough to hit somewhere remote - like a deserted island full of billionaires and influencers.

What Fiction Writers Can Take Away from This: Write the Chaos, Don’t Avoid It

So, here’s the deal. As terrifying as the idea of a 3% chance of global extinction sounds, there’s something wonderful in its absurdity. If you’re a writer, there’s a goldmine here. The world is strange, unpredictable, and full of the kinds of stories that are way too good to ignore. Yes, life is chaotic - sometimes so chaotic that it’s hard to tell the difference between an asteroid impact and your phone dying in the middle of a conversation.

Use this weirdness in your writing. Lean into the chaos. Show your characters dealing with absurdly small chances of disaster - because it feels a whole lot like real life. People are constantly coping with things that seem unlikely, until they happen. So, why not write characters who deal with their own asteroid-level fears, only to find that the true catastrophe is their inability to communicate with the boyfriend who leaves his socks on the floor? Life’s messiness is what makes good stories.

So, what if the asteroid does hit in 2030? Or maybe it doesn’t. But at least we can laugh, panic, and enjoy the absurdity while it lasts. And if it all comes crashing down, hey, at least we’ll have one heck of a story.

Go Write It, Scribblers

If nothing else, let’s all be thankful that, for now, we're safe-ish. So, let’s keep doing what we do best - pretending the world isn't falling apart around us while we focus on things like avocado toast and whether we need more canned beans. But let’s also write the weird, chaotic, unpredictable moments that make life - and stories - so interesting.

The Snark